"Not Two Tin Cans and a String" - A weekly Commentary on the Mobile Industry By Dan Blacharski
What's Driving the Mobile Industry?
When I got my first cell phone I felt like a big shot on the cutting edge of technology. I jettisoned the phone when my then-wife turned it into a ball and chain, but then thought better of the situation, jettisoned the wife, and got the cell phone back.
It's an older model Nokia. It's not a flip phone, and compared to today's models, it's fairly thick. I have a choice of about a half dozen ring tones, none of which are pop songs. It doesn't have a camera, can't function as a PDA, and doesn't let me surf the Net. I can use it to store phone numbers and to make phone calls when I'm out of the house, and that's about it. It serves its intended purpose, but I feel like a dinosaur.
The wireless industry is seeing tremendous growth, but it's not because of phones like mine. What is driving growth is sophisticated services and third-generation devices, and services like GPS and navigation. So-called "smart phones" are accounting for an increasing percentage of the market. According to a Canalys research report, shipments of converged smart mobile devices grew from 3.6 million in the first half of 2004, to 9.6 million in the first half of 2005, a whopping 170 percent increase. A particularly telling statistic is that if you take away the smart phone factor, mobile growth was only 11 percent for that period. And while GPS is popular everywhere, the European market is in particular enamored of the service, and Canalys says that in the second quarter of 2005, nearly half of the handhelds shipped had integrated GPS service. Japan, of course, remains the world's most advanced market for mobile phones. 3G phones have become enormously popular in Japan as well as other Asian countries, and the Japanese are already working on developing 4G functionality. GPS will be as common in cell phones as hot air at a politician's dinner party.
Beyond cell phones, handheld devices seem to be suffering an overall decline, according to research from IDC. The success of the handheld device business will rely on services that go beyond basic office productivity applications and PIM functionality; handhelds will need to include services like GPS to maintain market share. Palm has gotten on board by adding its E2 GPS Navigation Pak to its Tungsten E2 Handheld. The handheld itself delivers excellent resolution and built-in Bluetooth wireless technology, and the ability to create and edit Word, Excel, and PowerPoint files. You can also synchronize with Outlook, and even play MP3s. The Navigation Pak turns the Tungsten E2 into a powerful navigation solution, including maps of the US and Canada and millions of points of interest. It gives you turn-by-turn directions and voice guidance, and is driven by the powerful Tom Tom Navigator 5 software.
GPS cell phones are also great for finding your way around, and also for things like keeping track of where your teens, friends, or spouse may be at any given moment. My ex-wife would have loved it. Verizon Wireless' VZ Navigator GPS service is available on a monthly or per-day basis--an excellent offering indeed and convenient for those who want GPS for only a short period of time. Want it for vacation? You can just use the service by the day if you want. The service is available on the Motorola V325, a phone that puts my clunker to shame with an integrated camera, 30Mb of memory, and of course, ring tones and productivity features. When used with the Verizon service, you can get voice directions, and a visible map of your current location anywhere in the US.
GPS is likely to become standard equipment, or at least very common, on all cell phones within five years. Think tank predictions aside, two things will make them a success: (1) guys don't like asking for directions; and (2) guys like to play with gadgets. A cell phone that gives directions can't lose.
Stumble It! | Posted by Paul on May 9, 2006 11:52 PM
| Permalink